3D climate modeling of close-in land planets: Circulation patterns, climate moist bistability and habitability

The inner edge of the classical habitable zone is often defined by the critical flux needed to trigger the runaway greenhouse instability. This 1D notion of a critical flux, however, may not be so relevant for inhomogeneously irradiated planets, or when the water content is limited (land planets). Here, based on results from our 3D global climate model, we find that the circulation pattern can shift from super-rotation to stellar/anti stellar circulation when the equatorial Rossby deformation radius significantly exceeds the planetary radius. Using analytical and numerical arguments, we also demonstrate the presence of systematic biases between mean surface temperatures or temperature profiles predicted from either 1D or 3D simulations. Including a complete modeling of the water cycle, we further demonstrate that for land planets closer than the inner edge of the classical habitable zone, two stable climate regimes can exist. One is the classical runaway state, and the other is a collapsed state where water is captured in permanent cold traps. We identify this "moist" bistability as the result of a competition between the greenhouse effect of water vapor and its condensation. We also present synthetic spectra showing the observable signature of these two states. Taking the example of two prototype planets in this regime, namely Gl581c and HD85512b, we argue that they could accumulate a significant amount of water ice at their surface. If such a thick ice cap is present, gravity driven ice flows and geothermal flux should come into play to produce long-lived liquid water at the edge and/or bottom of the ice cap. Consequently, the habitability of planets at smaller orbital distance than the inner edge of the classical habitable zone cannot be ruled out. Transiting planets in this regime represent promising targets for upcoming observatories like EChO and JWST.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics, complete abstract in the pdf, 18 pages, 18 figure

Simulated performance of the molecular mapping for young giant exoplanets with the Medium Resolution Spectrometer of JWST/MIRI

Young giant planets are the best targets for characterization with direct imaging. The Medium Resolution Spectrometer (MRS) of the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) of the recently launched James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will give access to the first spectroscopic data for direct imaging above 5 $\mu$m with unprecedented sensitivity at a spectral resolution up to 3700. This will provide a valuable complement to near-infrared data from ground-based instruments for characterizing these objects. We aim to evaluate the performance of MIRI/MRS to detect molecules in the atmosphere of exoplanets and to constrain atmospheric parameters using Exo-REM atmospheric models. The molecular mapping technique, based on cross-correlation with synthetic models, has been introduced recently. This promising detection and characterization method is tested on simulated MIRI/MRS data. Directly imaged planets can be detected with MIRI/MRS, and we are able to detect molecules (H$_2$O, CO, NH$_3$, CH$_4$, HCN, PH$_3$, CO$_2$) at various angular separation depending on the strength of the molecular features and brightness of the target. We find that the stellar spectral type has a weak impact on the detection level. This method is globally most efficient for planets with temperatures below 1500 K, for bright targets and angular separation greater than 1$''$. Our parametric study allows us to anticipate the ability to characterize planets that would be detected in the future. The MIRI/MRS will give access to molecular species not yet detected in exoplanetary atmospheres. The detection of molecules as indicators of the temperature of the planets will make it possible to discriminate between the various hypotheses of the preceding studies, and the derived molecular abundance ratios should bring new constraints on planetary formation scenarios.Comment: 25 pages, 13 figure

Methane storms as a driver of Titan's dune orientation

Titan's equatorial regions are covered by eastward propagating linear dunes. This direction is opposite to mean surface winds simulated by Global Climate Models (GCMs), which are oriented westward at these latitudes, similar to trade winds on Earth. Different hypotheses have been proposed to address this apparent contradiction, involving Saturn's gravitational tides, large scale topography or wind statistics, but none of them can explain a global eastward dune propagation in the equatorial band. Here we analyse the impact of equinoctial tropical methane storms developing in the superrotating atmosphere (i.e. the eastward winds at high altitude) on Titan's dune orientation. Using mesoscale simulations of convective methane clouds with a GCM wind profile featuring superrotation, we show that Titan's storms should produce fast eastward gust fronts above the surface. Such gusts dominate the aeolian transport, allowing dunes to extend eastward. This analysis therefore suggests a coupling between superrotation, tropical methane storms and dune formation on Titan. Furthermore, together with GCM predictions and analogies to some terrestrial dune fields, this work provides a general framework explaining several major features of Titan's dunes: linear shape, eastward propagation and poleward divergence, and implies an equatorial origin of Titan's dune sand.Comment: Published online on Nature Geoscience on 13 April 201

Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth like planets

Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn, enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can "runaway" until all the oceans are evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause oceans to escape to space before the runaway greenhouse occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated with unidimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of Earth's climate. Here we use a 3D global climate model to show that the threshold for the runaway greenhouse is about 375 W/m$^2$, significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback on the long term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to defer the runaway greenhouse limit to higher insolation than inferred from 1D models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains cold and dry enough to hamper atmospheric water escape, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for Venus early water history and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.Comment: Published in Nature. Online publication date: December 12, 2013. Accepted version before journal editing and with Supplementary Informatio

Comparative global energy budgets for the climates of terrestrial and gas giant planets

The weather and climate on Earth are generally determined by the amount and distribution of incoming solar radiation. This must be balanced in equilibrium by the emission of thermal radiation from the surface and atmosphere, but the precise routes by which incoming energy is transferred from the surface and within the atmosphere and back out to space are important features that characterize the current climate. This has been analysed in the past by several groups over the years, based on combinations of numerical model simulations and direct observations of the Earth’s climate system. The results are often presented in schematic form[1] to show the main routes for the transfer of energy into, out of and within the climate system. Although relatively simple in concept, such diagrams convey a great deal of information about the climate system in a compact form, and are especially valuable pedagogically at school and undergraduate level. Such an approach has not so far been adopted in any systematic way for other planets of the Solar System, let alone beyond, although quite detailed climate models of several planets are now available, constrained by many new observations and measurements. Here we analyse the global transfers of energy within the climate systems of a range of terrestrial planets within the Solar System, including Mars, Titan and Venus, as simulated by relatively comprehensive numerical circulation models of such planets. These results will then be presented in schematic form for comparison with the ‘classical’ global energy budget analysis of Trenberth et al.[1] for the Earth, highlighting the important similarities and differences. We also consider how to extend this approach towards other Solar System and extra-solar planets, including Jupiter, Saturn and hot Jupiter exoplanets. [1] Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. and Kiehl, J.: Earth’s global energy budget, BAMS, Vol. 90, 311-323, 2009

A survey of exoplanet phase curves with Ariel

The ESA-Ariel mission will include a tier dedicated to exoplanet phase curves corresponding to ∼ 10 % of the science time. We present here the current observing strategy for studying exoplanet phase curves with Ariel. We define science questions, requirements and a list of potential targets. We also estimate the precision of phase curve reconstruction and atmospheric retrieval using simulated phase curves. Based on this work, we found that full-orbit phase variations for 35-40 exoplanets could be observed during the 3.5-yr mission. This statistical sample would provide key constraints on atmospheric dynamics, composition, thermal structure and clouds of warm exoplanets, complementary to the scientific yield from spectroscopic transits/eclipses measurements

The impact of supportive nursing care on the needs of men with prostate cancer: a study across seven European countries

Background: prostate cancer is for many men a chronic disease with a long life expectancy after treatment. The impact of prostate cancer therapy on men has been well defined, however, explanation of the consequences of cancer treatment has not been modelled against the wider variables of long-term health-care provision. The aim of this study was to explore the parameters of unmet supportive care needs in men with prostate cancer in relation to the experience of nursing care. Methods: a survey was conducted among a volunteer sample of 1001 men with prostate cancer living in seven European countries. Results: at the time of the survey, 81% of the men had some unmet supportive care needs including psychological, sexual and health system and information needs. Logistic regression indicated that lack of post-treatment nursing care significantly predicted unmet need. Critically, men's contact with nurses and/or receipt of advice and support from nurses, for several different aspects of nursing care significantly had an impact on men's outcomes. Conclusion: Unmet need is related not only to disease and treatment factors but is also associated with the supportive care men received. Imperative to improving men's treatment outcomes is to also consider the access to nursing and the components of supportive care provided, especially after therapy

Atmospheric super-rotation in solar system and extra-solar planetary atmospheres

Super-rotation is a common phenomenon in solar system planetary atmospheres. Out of the four substantial atmospheres possessed by solid bodies in the solar system, the slowly rotating planet, Venus, and moon, Titan, are both well-known to have atmospheres that rotate on average substantially more quickly than does the solid surface underneath. The more rapidly rotating planets, Mars and Earth, have much weaker global super-rotation, but both can exhibit time-varying prograde jets near the equator which rotate more rapidly than the local surface. Atmospheric super-rotation is not restricted to planets with solid surfaces and shallow atmospheres. Cloud-tracking observations of the gas giants Jupiter and Saturn show that they both possess rapid prograde equatorial jets and hence exhibit local super-rotation. Simplified global circulation models of extra-solar planets, including representations of ‘hot Jupiters’ and Earth-like planets rotating at different rates, can also show sustained super-rotating equatorial jets in different dynamical regimes. In the extra-solar planet cases in particular, the quantitative results are highly sensitive to model parameters. In each case the detailed mechanism, or combination of mechanisms, which produces the super-rotating jets might vary, but all require longitudinally asymmetric motions, waves or eddies, to transport angular momentum up-gradient into the jets. The mechanism is not always easy to diagnose from observations and requires careful modelling. We review both observations of solar system planets and recent global circulation model results, combined in the case of Mars and Earth in the form of atmospheric reanalyses by data assimilation, together with simplified extra-solar planet simulations

Exploring the faint young Sun problem and the possible climates of the Archean Earth with a 3-D GCM

Different solutions have been proposed to solve the “faint young Sun problem,” defined by the fact that the Earth was not fully frozen during the Archean despite the fainter Sun. Most previous studies were performed with simple 1-D radiative convective models and did not account well for the clouds and ice-albedo feedback or the atmospheric and oceanic transport of energy. We apply a global climate model (GCM) to test the different solutions to the faint young Sun problem. We explore the effect of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4), atmospheric pressure, cloud droplet size, land distribution, and Earth's rotation rate. We show that neglecting organic haze, 100 mbar of CO2 with 2 mbar of CH4 at 3.8 Ga and 10 mbar of CO2 with 2 mbar of CH4 at 2.5 Ga allow a temperate climate (mean surface temperature between 10°C and 20°C). Such amounts of greenhouse gases remain consistent with the geological data. Removing continents produces a warming lower than +4°C. The effect of rotation rate is even more limited. Larger droplets (radii of 17 μm versus 12 μm) and a doubling of the atmospheric pressure produce a similar warming of around +7°C. In our model, ice-free water belts can be maintained up to 25°N/S with less than 1 mbar of CO2 and no methane. An interesting cloud feedback appears above cold oceans, stopping the glaciation. Such a resistance against full glaciation tends to strongly mitigate the faint young Sun problem.Engineering and Applied Science